Bill Belichick?s coaching acumen has faced its fair share of crucibles this season. The New England Patriots have navigated through choppy waters before, but their 10-2 record doesn?t tell the full story.
While Belichick has been crediting Sun Tzu’s Art of War?for the strategies that bolstered his construction of the Patriots dynasty, Greek historian Plutarch?s myth about naval war hero Theseus? battle ship being left to float in Athens? harbor as a memorial to his heroic exploits corresponds to New England’s current dilemma. As Plutarch’s myth explains, eventually the decaying planks of Theseus? ship were gradually restored with more resilient timber until they were all replaced, leaving many to wonder if it was even Theseus’ ship anymore.
The apocryphal tale of Theseus? ship is a philosophical metaphor for how aging institutions lose their way once the original components have all been replaced. Even as Ty Law, Corey Dillon, Tedy Bruschi, Vince Wilfork, Randy Moss, Adam Vinateri, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski have moved on, Belichick has remained the architect of New England?s Theseus Ship analog. Brady steered them through NFL maelstroms, but he’s not the final Horcrux of the Patriots dynasty.?Belichick is proving that the structure he’s built may preserve itself as long as he’s around to mend its defects.
This season, Belichick has done more alterations than usual during the season. An offense which had the potential to become a prolific aerial attack buoyed by Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Demaryius Thomas, Philip Dorsett and Antonio Brown has devolved into a Receivers Anonymous support session. ?
Antonio Brown imploded with the ferocity of a failed supernova.Thomas was traded before the season opener to clear out a crowded receiver room. Gordon was waived from injured reserve. Rookie wideout N?Keal Harry spent the first two months of this season on IR. The rumored trade for OJ Howard never crystallized. Gronkowski never came out of retirement and undrafted free agent receiver Jakobi Meyers has been thrust into a prominent role. This roster turnover has made Brady look washed.
Aside from Edelman, Patriots receivers have struggled to consistently create separation and make explosive plays. While their receiving corps deteriorated, the cement wall they erected to protect Brady and create running lanes crumbled.?
Past incarnations of New England have drastically altered their scheme every few seasons,?but Brady remained the fulcrum of their finely-tuned machine. Brady’s recent woes have manifested fears that the?42-year-old quarterback?s senescence is showing. Brady’s passer rating of 49.3? under pressure ranks 46th in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, however, the injury bug infecting his pass protection unit may also be equally culpable.
Isaiah Wynn was drafted in the first round of the 2018 Draft to replace Pro Bowler Nate Solder at left tackle, but tore his Achilles tendon before his rookie campaign. In response, Belichick turned to the largest player in the NFL, Trenton Brown. Brown started all 16 games, then cashed in with the most lucrative contract for an offensive lineman in NFL history, topping the deal Solder inked with the Giants. Unfortunately, Wynn suffered a turf toe injury in September and missed 10 weeks. He’s still finding?his NFL footing on Brady?s blind side, as the offensive line also moves onto their third string center.
Consequently, their ground game has suffered as well. One year after fielding the NFL’s fifth-ranked rushing offense, they’re 21st and averaging 30 fewer yards per game. Those issues go beyond the offensive line. New England was typically successful handing off to Sony Michel behind fullback James Devlin as lead blocker in those throwback pro-style 2RB-1TE sets. San Francisco?s Kyle Juszczyk, the NFL?s highest-paid fullback, was the only fullback to play more snaps than Devlin in 2018.?According to Sharp Football Stats? tracking stats, San Francisco was the only team to operate out of 21 personnel in 2018 more frequently than New England, who did so on 28 percent of their snaps. This year, they’re utilizing 21 personnel 12 percent of the time.?
During their Super Bowl LIII campaign, New England ball carriers averaged 4.5 yards per carry out of 21 personnel. With Devlin and backup Jakob Johnson on injured reserve, Patriot ball carriers have logged just 3.4 yards per rush in that formation, not coincidentally equal to Michel?s average yard per carry.
As a result of the fullback?s endangered species status, replacing those two with the season in-progress is a daunting challenge.?The special teams hasn’t been exempt as kicker Stephen Gostkowski?s season-ending hip injury has created a revolving door of kickers.?
The burden on Belichick in the final weeks of 2019 will be to construct his magnum opus and reinvigorate their passing attack by transforming their nosediving offensive clunker into a unit that does just enough to supplement their defense, which ranks first in defensive DVOA.
It?s the inverse of their predicament just one year ago. Prior to the 2018 playoffs, the Patriots defense ranked 16th in defensive DVOA. After their defense got 31 second half points hung on them in an AFC Championship win over the Kansas City Chiefs, New England delivered a historic defensive display. The Patriots shuttered Los Angeles? Showtime Offense 13-3, holding them to 9.1 percent of their regular season average, which is the best mark in Super Bowl history.
During the offseason, they lost Trey Flowers in free agency and two defensive coordinators. Brian Flores after he accepted the the Miami Dolphins opening, then his replacement, Greg Schiano resigned to pursue the Rutgers opening, but somehow improved dramatically. With inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo and safeties coach Steve Belichick sharing coordinator duties, New England’s defense embarked on one of the most dominant first halves of a season in the modern NFL.
Unlike their offensive counterparts, the defense has remained relatively healthy. The defense will recover from their Week 13 letdown against the Houston Texans. An outbreak of the flu forced New England to quarantine a quarter of their starters, including All-Pro cornerback Stephen Gilmore, Jamie Collins, Van Noy, Dont?a Hightower, Marcus Cannon and Wynn.
The Patriots were so worried the flu would spread that they transported those starters to Houston on a separate flight rather than risk exposing half the roster. For good measure, Jason McCourty was also missed in the secondary while he nursed a groin injury. Once their immune systems return to full strength, they?ll be?a force to be reckoned with again.
If history is any indication, their mid-season acquisition of?Mohamed Sanu will pay dividends and Harry will develop a redzone?rapport with Brady. The pieces are there if New England can solve the jigsaw puzzle before elimination games begin in January.
Belichick?s ability to maximize his roster?s strengths by identifying diamonds in the rough, mismatches and creating amorphous schemes are legendary. However, it will take some powerful necromancy for him to compensate for the losses the Patriots have suffered this season and especially if Brady is unable to be the high tide who lifts their boat as he has in the past.
